Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, April 28th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and overnight weakness across international bonds. Stocks are showing early losses also with the Dow down 60 points and the Nasdaq down 191 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (4.36%), which with some afternoon selling yesterday should cause an increase of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates.

6/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.36%

60

Dow

49,107

191

NASDAQ

24,695

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 5-year Treasury Note auction went fairly well despite having no impact on mortgage pricing. The 1:00 PM ET results announcement showed an above average demand for the securities compared to other recent sales. Since these are shorter-term securities, the sale wasn’t overly strong or weak and bonds showed little reaction to the results, we are labeling the auction neutral for mortgage rates. That also leaves us to have little opinion about today’s 7-year Note auction. Results of it will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET, making it an early afternoon event for rates. Favorable news would be a very strong demand for the securities.

Medium

Negative

Consumer Confidence Index

This morning’s sole economic report indicated surveyed consumers felt better about their own finances this month than many had thought. The Conference Board announced at 10:00 AM ET that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April stands at 92.8, up from March’s revised 92.2. Forecasts had the index falling due to concerns about high oil and gas prices. April’s increase is bad news for bonds because it means consumers are likely to spend more since they are more comfortable with the personal financial situations than they were in March. Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and bonds are more attractive to investors in times of weaker economic conditions.

Medium

Unknown

Durable Goods Orders

Tomorrow has two morning economic reports set for release before the afternoon FOMC events. First up is March's Durable Goods Orders that gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. This report tracks orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years, such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Current forecasts show a 0.5% increase in new orders, signaling a rebound in the manufacturing sector after February’s orders fell 1.4%. Weaker manufacturing activity is favorable news for mortgage rates. It is worth noting that this data is known to be volatile from month to month, so a small variance from expectations won't affect the markets like it would coming in many other reports.

Low

Unknown

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

February and March Housing Starts reports will be released early tomorrow morning also. This shutdown-delayed data tracks groundbreakings of new home construction and gives us a hint of housing sector strength. The report is expected to show a decline in new starts, pointing to a bit of weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. Good news for rates would be a sizable decline, but this data doesn't draw a high level of interest. It will take a large variance from forecasts to have an impact on mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

This week's FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET. The overwhelming consensus is that Chairman Powell and friends will leave key short-term interest rates at their current levels to see how higher oil prices will affect inflation over the longer period. Their post-meeting statement will be released when it adjourns, which will be followed by what will likely be Chairman Powell’s final FOMC press conference at 2:30 PM ET. This meeting does not include revised economic projections.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.