Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, February 6th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and sizable gains in stocks during early trading. The major stock indexes are rallying into the weekend with the Dow up 795 points and the Nasdaq up 193 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (4.21%), but a decent bond rally late yesterday should allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point lower than Thursday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement in rates yesterday, you may see little change this morning, depending on the size of yesterday’s revision.

9/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.21%

795

Dow

49,704

193

NASDAQ

22,734

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

This morning’s sole relevant economic release was the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for February at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 57.3 that exceeded forecasts of 55.5 and higher than January’s 56.4. This means surveyed consumers feel better about their own personal finances this month than they did last month. Since rising sentiment signals willingness to spend and usually translates into stronger consumer spending numbers, February’s reading is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic releases, but three of them are considered to be highly influential. We will get December’s Retail Sales data, January’s Employment report and January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday respectively. In addition to a couple of moderately important reports, there are also two auctions of long-term Treasury securities that may affect rates during afternoon trading midweek. The week starts fairly light with just a few afternoon Fed-member speeches Monday before heading into the major releases. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.