Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, October 7th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory to erase yesterday’s afternoon gains. Stocks are reacting to the same with the Dow down 531 points and the Nasdaq down 213 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (5.31%) as oil prices rise and concerns that the Gulf hurricane and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz may drive prices even higher. This should leave this morning’s mortgage rates slightly higher than Tuesday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement yesterday, you will likely see a more noticeable increase this morning.

8/32

Bonds

30 yr - 5.31%

531

Dow

50,990

213

NASDAQ

27,385

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Today’s only scheduled events that are relevant to the bond market and/or mortgage rates come during afternoon trading. The results of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. A strong demand from investors would indicate investor appetite for long-term securities is good, which is favorable news because mortgage rates are based on long-term debt also. On the other hand, if the auction draws a lackluster interest, we could see bond prices move lower, pushing yields and mortgage pricing higher later today. This scenario will be the same tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are sold and results are released at 1:00 PM ET also.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The minutes from last month's FOMC meeting will be posted at 2:00 PM ET today. One key point traders are looking for insight on is how many more rate hikes the Fed will make over the next few meetings, especially at the remaining two of this year. There was much debate about whether or not they will make another quarter-point hike at one of those meetings, but that was before recent favorable inflation news and a weaker than expected Employment report last Friday. It is worth noting though, the last FOMC meeting was followed by revised economic predictions and a press conference with Fed Chair Warsh. This means the likelihood of seeing a significant surprise in the minutes is relatively low.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

We will get last week’s unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show the employment sector weakened slightly last week with an increase in new claims for jobless benefits. Forecasts have the number of new claims at 200,000, up from the previous week’s 197,000. The larger the number of new filings, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates. Since this is just a weekly snapshot, the release usually has a just modest impact on rates, at best. However, since there is so little data and other events on this week’s calendar, we may see a little stronger reaction to a surprise number than we usually do.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.