Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, November 10th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory following unfavorable inflation news. Stocks are reacting negatively to the same data with the Dow down 265 points and the Nasdaq down 101 points. The bond market is currently down 24/32 (4.98%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of somewhere between .500 and .750 of a discount point.

24/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.98%

265

Dow

52,123

101

NASDAQ

25,151

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Negative

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

This week’s limited economic calendar began this morning with the release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It showed consumer level inflation was a little stronger than anticipated last month, nearly guaranteeing another Fed rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting. The overall CPI rose 0.4% while the more important core reading that excludes volatile food and energy costs was up 0.3%. Analysts were expecting to see 0.3% and 0.2% increases respectively. These numbers are bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed-interest payments, leading to them being sold at a discount. When bond prices fall, their yields move higher and mortgage rates tend to track bond yields. It is worth noting that this month’s report did not include annual readings due to the October 2025 government shutdown.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Results of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET, giving us an indication of investor appetite for long-term securities. This is relevant to rates because mortgage rates are based on long-term debt. A strong sale, meaning investor demand was high, will be good news for the broader bond market and the future direction of mortgage pricing. However, if the benchmarks point to a lackluster interest in the securities, we may see a bit of pressure in the broader bond market this afternoon that leads to a slight upward revision to mortgage pricing.

Low

Neutral

Holiday Schedule

The bond market will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Veteran’s Day holiday, but stocks will trade a full session. This may lead to mortgage lenders using this afternoon’s pricing until Thursday morning. Because many lenders will be open for business tomorrow and this afternoon’s auction results may influence rates slightly, there will be an update to this report tomorrow morning.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Victoria Capital Mortgage Company

455 Los Gatos Blvd. Suite 100
Los Gatos, CA 95032
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