Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, August 13th

Thursday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory following another round of inflation data that failed to push concerns higher. Stocks are in positive ground also with the Dow up 182 points and the Nasdaq up 255 points. The bond market is currently up 21/32 (4.61%), which should allow for an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point if compared to Wednesday’s early pricing.

21/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.61%

182

Dow

53,952

255

NASDAQ

26,243

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction went well with the benchmarks indicating there was a strong interest from investors, especially international buyers. This was good news for mortgage rates because the strong demand means investors have a decent appetite for long-term securities and mortgage rates are based on similar debt. We saw an immediate improvement in bonds right after the results were announced at 1:00 PM ET, but it wasn’t enough of a move to create an intraday improvement in rates and the knee-jerk gains were eventually lost before the end of the day. So, while the auction results can be labeled good news, we didn’t actually see a positive impact on mortgage pricing. That said, yesterday’s results allow us to be optimistic about today’s 30-year Bond sale. If the 1:00 PM ET results release is similar to yesterday’s auction, we could see bond strength during afternoon trading today, possibly leading to a slight improvement in mortgage rates.

High

Positive

Producer Price Index (PPI)

July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed wholesale level inflation in the U.S. economy was a bit softer than expected last month. The overall PPI reading was unchanged from June’s upwardly revised level when it was expected to be up 0.2%. The core reading that excludes more volatile food and energy costs rose 0.2% last month, falling just short of the 0.3% that was expected. Also in the good news column were the annual PPI readings that showed inflation slowed by a decent pace. The overall PPI slowed from June’s 5.5% to 4.7% in July while the core data went from 4.7% to 4.2%.

Medium

Positive

Inflation News

This morning’s data showed that wholesale inflation was weaker than expected last month, so the headline numbers make the report good news. They also are fueling this morning’s bond rally. However, it should be noted that it is still well above the Fed’s goal of 2.0% annually. Even though the data makes a rate hike by the Fed a little less likely at next month’s FOMC meeting, it doesn’t remove the possibility of seeing one before the end of the year.

Medium

Positive

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Also released early this morning were last week’s unemployment figures that showed 209,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This was higher than the 202,000 initial filings that were predicted to hint that employment sector was a bit weaker than expected. As a sign of economic weakness, this report may be playing a small part in this morning’s bond gains, but the primary focus is on the inflation data.

High

Unknown

Retail Sales

Tomorrow brings us two more pieces of economic data, one of which is another major release. The more important of the two is July's Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET that tracks consumer spending. This category makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so analysts pay close attention to related data. Forecasts have sales rising 0.2%, indicating consumers spent slightly more last month than they did in June. Because this category is a key part of the overall economy and bonds tend to thrive in softer economic conditions, weaker sales would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Rev)

The last release of the week will come from the University of Michigan at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment for August will give us an indication of consumer confidence that projects willingness to spend. If a consumer is more confident in their own financial and employment situations this month than last month, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. On the other hand, if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and therefore, impacts the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 54.2 that would mean confidence is a little weaker this month than July's level of 55.2. Favorable news for mortgage rates would be a sizable decline.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Victoria Capital Mortgage Company

455 Los Gatos Blvd. Suite 100
Los Gatos, CA 95032
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